Before he won the U.S. election, North Korea regarded Joe Biden as a “low IQ fool,” while the presidential candidate labeled Kim Jong Un as a “thug.”
However, after the White House announced that it had completed the announcement of its North Korean policy, people were skeptical about whether the president would withdraw from the opposition and interact with the nuclear dictator.
The details of the plan have not yet been announced, but many foreign policy experts believe that as Biden seeks to resolve domestic problems, the US president has reduced Washington’s focus on North Korea, which is a priority task of the Donald Trump administration. Increase focus on China.
Former CIA analyst Sue Mi Terry briefly introduced North Korea to President George W Bush and Barack Obama. He believes that Biden’s policies are designed as “Hold an action, not a breakthrough.”
“The government did not hype its proposal. It realized that it was unlikely to “solve” the North Korean issue. She said it might try to keep North Korea quiet in order to focus on other urgent priorities that can be resolved.”
Government officials have completed a months-long policy review and stated that Biden will “explore diplomacy” as part of a “calibrated and practical approach.”They also quickly lowered their expectations, pointing out that the past four presidents failed to persuade North Korea to give up Nuclear weapons.
“We have… a very clear policy centered on diplomacy… Secretary of State Anthony Brinken said Monday.
After review Turbulent times In the relationship between the United States and North Korea. After the escalation of hostility and weapon testing, Trump violated the agreement and met with North Korean leaders three times.While tensions eased, Trump Failed to achieve Long-term agreement.
But Biden has quickly distanced himself from Trump and Obama, and he and most of his foreign policy team have served for eight years.
White House Press Secretary Jen Psaki said: “Our policy will neither focus on bargaining nor rely on’strategic patience’,” referring to Trump’s dramatic summit meeting and Obama’s treatment of North Korea. Of inaction.
Pyongyang attacked Biden’s “intention to continue” on Sunday. . . Hostile policy” and warned that “over time, the United States will fall into a very severe situation.”
Soo Kim, a former CIA North Korean analyst at the think tank Rand Corporation, predicts that the Kim regime will Resume military provocation. She said: “Pyongyang has hardly allowed the peripheral countries to retreat.”
Last month, the US intelligence community’s annual threat assessment warned that North Korea would pose an “increasing threat” to the United States. It said that Kim Jong Il believes that over time, he will gain international recognition as a nuclear power, and “may not think that the current pressure on his regime is sufficient to demand a fundamental change in his practices.”
Terry of the Center for Strategic and International Studies said that it is “logical” to provide North Korea with a “phased agreement,” essentially proposing some sanctions in exchange for limited nuclear concessions.
She said: “But in fact, this is unlikely to work.” “If Kim Jong-un sticks to his determination, there will be no progress in the negotiation. I suspect the Biden team will be very surprised by this.”
To further complicate the situation, Washington is also trying to control Seoul’s expectations. Advocating relaxation of sanctions And a greater degree of economic cooperation with Pyongyang and hard-line Tokyo.
Biden’s national security adviser, Jake Sullivan, told the Financial Times that diplomacy with North Korea will be “partly bilateral and partly multilateral”.
This formulation points to another priority of the Biden administration: to avoid the widening of differences between Japan and South Korea as the United States tries to cooperate with its allies to deal with the rise of China.
Biden’s cautious attitude towards North Korea also reflects the disagreement among Washington experts on the degree of success in engaging with North Korea.
“If I believe that North Korea will not denuclearize, it is correct. [Biden administration’s] The policy should be to reduce the danger of these nuclear weapons. “Former US Secretary of Defense William Perry (William Perry) said.
Although Pyongyang has been hit hard, others believe that Kim Jong-il has not completely rejected diplomacy because he is seeking protection from destructive economic sanctions.
Ramon Pacheco Pardo, a North Korean expert at King’s College London, pointed out several “positive signs”, including Kim Jong-il’s insistence since the 2018 summit with Trump in Singapore A de facto moratorium on nuclear testing and intercontinental ballistic missile testing.
People familiar with the matter said that preparations are being made for a potential “second track” dialogue: back-channel discussions involving North Korean diplomats and foreign non-governmental experts.
“Of course they have opened their doors,” said Glyn Ford, a former member of the European Parliament, who has close ties with senior North Korean officials. “I don’t know how open the door is.”